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Advanced purchase commitments for a malaria vaccine: estimating costs and effectiveness

Berndt, Ernst R., Glennerster, Rachel, Kremer, Michael R., Lee, Jean, Levine, Ruth, Weizsacker, Georg and Williams, Heidi (2005) Advanced purchase commitments for a malaria vaccine: estimating costs and effectiveness. 11288. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA., USA.

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Abstract

To overcome the problem of insufficient research and development (R&D) on vaccines for diseases concentrated in low-income countries, sponsors could commit to purchase viable vaccines if and when they are developed. One or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price that would be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to short-run marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make the revenues from R&D investments on a malaria vaccine similar to revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various contract models and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment for the case of a malaria vaccine. Under conservative assumptions, we document that the intervention would be highly cost-effective from a public health perspective. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical malaria vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection against malaria conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.nber.org
Additional Information: © 2005 Ernst R. Berndt, Rachel Glennerster, Michael R. Kremer, Jean Lee, Ruth Levine, Georg Weizsäcker, and Heidi Williams.
Library of Congress subject classification: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Journal of Economic Literature Classification System: O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O19 - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O38 - Government Policy
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Sets: Collections > Economists Online
Departments > Economics
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Identification Number: 11288
Date Deposited: 04 Jun 2008 11:36
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/5332/

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