Greece in recession: economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications

Petralias, Athanassios, Petros, Sotirios and Prodromídis, Pródromos (2013) Greece in recession: economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications. GreeSE: Hellenic Observatory papers on Greece and Southeast Europe (75). Hellenic Observatory, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, U.K..

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Abstract

We look into the available macroeconomic figures and the predictions made about the recession in Greece by international organizations, Greek research centers, and the Greek government; and suggest that the predictions regarding the decline in real GDP in recent years were overly optimistic. The same entities predict that real GDP will fall by 4.2-4.6% during 2013. However, by our calculations, the drop may be steeper than the one predicted, even if some of the assumptions made by these institutes or the government materialize. We hope the steps taken will disprove the accuracy of our prediction. To that end we provide some policy recommendations.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/hellenicObservato...
Additional Information:	© 2013 The Author
Divisions:	European Institute Hellenic Observatory
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C33 - Models with Panel Data C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation and Selection C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
Date Deposited:	16 Sep 2013 14:27
Last Modified:	13 Sep 2024 20:24
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/52626

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