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Fertility, contraception and method mix in Tanzania: trends and changes since 1990

Weinberger, Michelle and Coast, Ernestina ORCID: 0000-0002-8703-307X (2014) Fertility, contraception and method mix in Tanzania: trends and changes since 1990. In: Mturi, Akim J. and Agyei-Mensah, Samuel, (eds.) Explaining fertility differences in sub-Saharan Africa: projecting the demographic future. Edward Mellen Press. ISBN 0773442707

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Despite a large increase in contraceptive use in Tanzania since the early 1990s, fertility has remained high. Fertility estimates from the latest demographic surveys suggest that fertility decline may be stalling in Tanzania. However, this national trend may mask very different patterns of fertility decline between urban and rural areas. This study assesses the presence and impact of fertility stalls both at the national level, and across urban and rural areas. Findings from sampling error analysis and Bongaart’s proximate determinants framework suggest that in both urban and rural areas of Tanzania, the declining and stalling fertility patterns have been influenced by small changes in marriage and infecundability, as well as by changes in the pace and average effectiveness of contraceptive use. Notably, increased use of traditional methods in urban areas contributed to the recent urban fertility stall. In addition, findings suggest that more rapid increases in contraceptive use and method mix effectiveness could have prevented both observed occurrences of fertility stalls. Finally, findings suggest that sampling problems with the 2004/5 DHS in rural areas may have affected the observed TFR, hence, exaggerating the rural fertility stall. The potential impact of future contraceptive use is also considered, and shows that meeting the current unmet need for contraception could reduce the total fertility rate to as low as 2.5. Implications for future reproductive health and population policies in Tanzania are described

Item Type: Book Section
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2014 Edwin Mellen Press
Divisions: Social Policy
LSE Health
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
JEL classification: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I12 - Health Production: Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Suicide, Substance Abuse and Addiction, Disability, and Economic Behavior
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Date Deposited: 17 Jul 2014 09:54
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 05:37

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