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Analyzing the climate sensitivity of the HadSM3 climate model using ensembles from different but related experiments

Rougier, Jonathan, Sexton, David M. H, Murphy, James M. and Stainforth, David A. (2009) Analyzing the climate sensitivity of the HadSM3 climate model using ensembles from different but related experiments. Journal of Climate, 22 (13). pp. 3540-3557. ISSN 0894-8755

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Identification Number: 10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1

Abstract

Global climate models (GCMs) contain imprecisely defined parameters that account, approximately, for subgrid-scale physical processes. The response of a GCM to perturbations in its parameters, which is crucial for quantifying uncertainties in simulations of climate change, can—in principle—be assessed by simulating the GCM many times. In practice, however, such “perturbed physics” ensembles are small because GCMs are so expensive to simulate. Statistical tools can help in two ways. First, they can be used to combine ensembles from different but related experiments, increasing the effective number of simulations. Second, they can be used to describe the GCM’s response in ways that cannot be extracted directly from the ensemble(s). The authors combine two experiments to learn about the response of the Hadley Centre Slab Climate Model version 3 (HadSM3) climate sensitivity to 31 model parameters. A Bayesian statistical framework is used in which expert judgments are required to quantify the relationship between the two experiments; these judgments are validated by detailed diagnostics. The authors identify the entrainment rate coefficient of the convection scheme as the most important single parameter and find that this interacts strongly with three of the large-scale-cloud parameters.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/loi/clim
Additional Information: © 2009 American Meteorological Society
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Date Deposited: 26 Mar 2013 11:52
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2020 01:22
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/49446

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