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Do players correctly estimate what others do?: Evidence of conservatism in beliefs

Huck, Steffan and Weizsacker, Georg (2002) Do players correctly estimate what others do?: Evidence of conservatism in beliefs. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 47 (1). pp. 71-85. ISSN 0167-2681

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Abstract

n a simple experimental environment a group of subjects was asked to give estimates of a second group’s choice frequencies in a set of lottery-choice tasks. The results show that subjects in the first group are on average able to correctly predict the option that is chosen with higher frequency by the second group, but the predictions are systematically inaccurate in that they are distorted toward the uniform prior. Two mechanisms to elicit the expectations were used in the experiment, a quadratic scoring rule and a bidding mechanism. Aggregate results being similar under both mechanisms, the use of the former mechanism consistently yields more accurate predictions.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01672...
Additional Information: © 2002 Elsevier
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Journal of Economic Literature Classification System: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C23 - Models with Panel Data
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C91 - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
Sets: Collections > Economists Online
Departments > Economics
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 21 May 2008 09:32
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/4943/

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