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Will it rain tomorrow? Improving probabilistic forecasts

Wheatcroft, Edward (2013) Will it rain tomorrow? Improving probabilistic forecasts. In: LSE Research Festival 2013, 2013-03-01. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Predicting the weather is notoriously difficult because of its chaotic nature. In chaotic systems, small errors in the initial conditions can cause large errors in predicting the future. In this poster we describe the challenges of such systems and a method that has been developed to deal with the uncertainty it brings. Ensemble forecasting uses a variety of initial conditions that take into account any uncertainty in what is happening now to give us a variety of predictions of the future, each accounting for different circumstances. We compare a variety of different methods of transforming these ensembles into probability distributions which can be of great use to decision makers.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Additional Information: © 2013 Edward Wheatcroft
Divisions: Centre for Analysis of Time Series
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Collections > LSE Research Festival 2013
Date Deposited: 18 Mar 2013 12:50
Last Modified: 03 Jun 2020 23:07
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/49213

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