Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

Climate prediction for adaptation: who needs what?

Millner, Antony (2012) Climate prediction for adaptation: who needs what? Climatic Change, 110 (1-2). pp. 143-167. ISSN 0165-0009

Full text not available from this repository.
Identification Number: 10.1007/s10584-011-0073-1

Abstract

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust their adaptation strategies at low cost. However, the constraints on the accuracy of long-term predictions in order for them to be ‘accurate enough’ to be recommended unreservedly are strongest for precisely those users who desire them most. There are thus intrinsic structural limitations to the utility of long-term predictions for adaptive decision making. In addition, the heterogeneous dependence of adaptive performance on predictions at different temporal scales gives rise to a resource allocation problem for investments aimed at improving predictions so as to maximize their social benefits. It is suggested that an explicit distributional framework that matches users’ needs with scientific feasibility is needed in order to guide such investments, and key issues any such framework will need to address are discussed.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/10584
Additional Information: © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Date Deposited: 14 Feb 2013 14:32
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2020 04:45
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/48693

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item