Estimating the peace dividend: the impact of violence on house prices in Northern Ireland

Besley, Timothy ORCID: 0000-0002-8923-6372 and Mueller, Hannes (2012) Estimating the peace dividend: the impact of violence on house prices in Northern Ireland. American Economic Review, 102 (2). pp. 810-833. ISSN 0002-8282

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Abstract

This article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. After establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices, we estimate the parameters of a Markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states. We use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/index.php
Additional Information:	© 2012 American Economic Association
Divisions:	Economics STICERD
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R3 - Production Analysis and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets
Date Deposited:	02 Jul 2012 13:40
Last Modified:	01 Nov 2024 05:22
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/44575

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