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International capital flows and house prices: theory and evidence

Favilukis, Jack (2011) International capital flows and house prices: theory and evidence. In: Glaeser, Edward and Sinai, Todd, (eds.) Housing and the Financial Crisis. National Bureau of Economic Research, Massachusetts, USA. ISBN 9780226030586

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Abstract

The last fifteen years have been marked by a dramatic boom-bust cycle in real estate prices, accompanied by economically large fluctuations in international capital flows. We argue that changes in international capital flows played, at most, a small role in driving house price movements in this episode and that, instead, the key causal factor was a financial market liberalization and its subsequent reversal. Using observations on credit standards, capital flows, and interest rates, we find that a bank survey measure of credit supply, by itself, explains 53 percent of the quarterly variation in house price growth in the U.S. over the period 1992-2010, while it explains 66 percent over the period since 2000. By contrast, once we control for credit supply, various measures of capital flows, real interest rates, and aggregate activity-collectively-add less than 5% to the fraction of variation explained for these same movements in home values. Credit supply retains its strong marginal explanatory power for house price movements over the period 2002-2010 in a panel of international data, while capital flows have no explanatory power

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: © 2011 NBER
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Journal of Economic Literature Classification System: F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F20 - General
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Sets: Departments > Finance
Collections > Economists Online
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 16 Apr 2012 13:55
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/43128/

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