Dietz, Simon 
ORCID: 0000-0001-5002-018X
(2009)
High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change.
Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (9).
Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK.
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Abstract
To what extent does economic analysis of climate change depend on low-probability, high-impact events? This question has received a great deal of attention lately, with the contention increasingly made that climate damage could be so large that societal willingness to pay to avoid extreme outcomes should overwhelm other seemingly important assumptions, notably on time preference. This paper provides an empirical examination of some key theoretical points, using a probabilistic integrated assessment model. New, fat-tailed distributions are inputted for key parameters representing climate sensitivity and economic costs. It is found that welfare estimates do strongly depend on tail risks, but for a set of plausible assumptions time preference can still matter.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://www2.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/Home.aspx |
| Additional Information: | © 2009 The Author |
| Divisions: | Geography & Environment Grantham Research Institute |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences J Political Science > JZ International relations |
| JEL classification: | Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Jul 2011 12:25 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Dec 2024 18:58 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/37612 |
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