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Macroeconomic determinants of stock volatility and volatility premiums

Corradi, Valentina, Distaso, Walter and Mele, Antonio (2013) Macroeconomic determinants of stock volatility and volatility premiums. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60 (2). pp. 203-220. ISSN 0304-3932

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Identification Number: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.019


How does stock market volatility relate to the business cycle? We develop, and estimate, a no-arbitrage model, and find that (i) the level and fluctuations of stock volatility are largely explained by business cycle factors and (ii) some unobserved factor contributes to nearly 20% to the overall variation in volatility, although not to its ups and downs. Instead, this “volatility of volatility” relates to the business cycle. Finally, volatility risk-premiums are strongly countercyclical, even more than stock volatility, and partially explain the large swings of the VIX index during the 2007–2009 subprime crisis, which our model captures in out-of-sample experiments.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
Divisions: Finance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Date Deposited: 28 Nov 2012 12:43
Last Modified: 20 Oct 2021 02:00
Projects: RES-062-23-0311, EP/C522958/1
Funders: Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

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