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On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)

Beven, Keith, Smith, P. J. and Wood, A. (2011) On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8 (3). pp. 5355-5386. ISSN 1812-2116

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Abstract

Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary means that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals can be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions. To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information content in a set of calibration data and increase the possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior to evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed. An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter values of a hydrological model.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/volumes_and_i...
Additional Information: © 2011 The Authors
Library of Congress subject classification: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 27 Jun 2011 10:16
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/36890/

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