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Significance testing with no alternative hypothesis: a measure of surprise

Howard, J. V. (2009) Significance testing with no alternative hypothesis: a measure of surprise. Erkenntnis, 70 (2). pp. 253-270. ISSN 0165-0106

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Abstract

A pure significance test would check the agreement of a statistical model with the observed data even when no alternative model was available. The paper proposes the use of a modified p-value to make such a test. The model will be rejected if something surprising is observed (relative to what else might have been observed). It is shown that the relation between this measure of surprise (the s-value) and the surprise indices of Weaver and Good is similar to the relationship between a p-value, a corresponding odds-ratio, and a logit or log-odds statistic. The s-value is always larger than the corresponding p-value, and is not uniformly distributed. Difficulties with the whole approach are discussed.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.springerlink.com/content/0165-0106/
Additional Information: © 2009 Springer
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Sets: Departments > Management
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 07 Apr 2011 11:39
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/30209/

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