Howard, John V. (2009) Significance testing with no alternative hypothesis: a measure of surprise. Erkenntnis, 70 (2). pp. 253-270. ISSN 0165-0106
Abstract
A pure significance test would check the agreement of a statistical model with the observed data even when no alternative model was available. The paper proposes the use of a modified p-value to make such a test. The model will be rejected if something surprising is observed (relative to what else might have been observed). It is shown that the relation between this measure of surprise (the s-value) and the surprise indices of Weaver and Good is similar to the relationship between a p-value, a corresponding odds-ratio, and a logit or log-odds statistic. The s-value is always larger than the corresponding p-value, and is not uniformly distributed. Difficulties with the whole approach are discussed.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://www.springerlink.com/content/0165-0106/ |
| Additional Information: | © 2009 Springer |
| Library of Congress subject classification: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Sets: | Departments > Management |
| Rights: | http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/rights/LSERO.htm |
| URL: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/30209/ |
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