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Pricing and hedging in carbon emissions markets

Cetin, Umut and Verschuere, Michel (2009) Pricing and hedging in carbon emissions markets. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 12 (7). pp. 949-967. ISSN 0219-0249

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Identification Number: 10.1142/S0219024909005531


We propose a model for trading in emission allowances in the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). Exploiting an arbitrage relationship we derive the spot prices of carbon allowances given a forward contract whose price is exogenous to the model. The modeling is done under the assumption of no banking of carbon allowances (which is valid during the Phase I of Kyoto protocol), however, we also discuss how the model can be extended when banking of permits is available. We employ results from filtering theory to derive the spot prices of permits and suggest hedging formulas using a local risk minimisation approach. We also consider the effect of intermediate announcements regarding the net position of the ETS zone on the prices and show that the jumps in the prices can be attributed to information release on the net position of the zone. We also provide a brief numerical simulation for the price processes of carbon allowances using our model to show the resemblance to the actual data.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company
Divisions: Statistics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Sets: Departments > Statistics
Collections > Economists Online
Date Deposited: 09 Sep 2010 13:30
Last Modified: 20 May 2020 02:03

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