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The gift of the dying: the tragedy of AIDS and the welfare of future African generations

Young, Alwyn (2005) The gift of the dying: the tragedy of AIDS and the welfare of future African generations. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120 (2). pp. 423-466. ISSN 0033-5533

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Abstract

This paper simulates the impact of the AIDS epidemic on future living standards in South Africa. I emphasize two competing effects. On the one hand, the epidemic is likely to have a detrimental impact on the human capital accumulation of orphaned children. On the other hand, widespread community infection lowers fertility, both directly, through a reduction in the willingness to engage in unprotected sexual activity, and indirectly, by increasing the scarcity of labor and the value of a woman's time. I find that even with the most pessimistic assumptions concerning reductions in educational attainment, the fertility effect dominates. The AIDS epidemic, on net, enhances the future per capita consumption possibilities of the South African economy.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/
Additional Information: © 2005 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Journal of Economic Literature Classification System: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I10 - General
Sets: Departments > Economics
Collections > Economists Online
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Date Deposited: 09 Jul 2007
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/2558/

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