Pesaran, M. Hashem and Timmermann, Allan (2002) Market timing and return prediction under model instability. Discussion paper, 412. Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
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Despite mounting empirical evidence to the contrary, the literature on predictability of stock returns almost uniformly assumes a time-invariant relationship between state variables and returns. In this paper we propose a two-stage approach for forecasting of financial return series that are subject to breaks. The first stage adopts a reversed ordered Cusum (ROC) procedure to determine in real time when the most recent break has occurred. In the second stage, post-break data is used to estimate the parameters of the forecasting model. We compare this approach to existing alternatives for dealing with parameter instability such as the Bai-Perron method and the time-varying parameter model. An out-of-sample forecasting experiment demonstrates considerable gains in market timing precision from adopting the proposed two-stage forecasting method.
|Item Type:||Monograph (Discussion Paper)|
|Additional Information:||© 2002 The Authors|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Predictability of US stock returns, Market timing information, Structural breaks|
|Library of Congress subject classification:||H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
|Sets:||Research centres and groups > Financial Markets Group (FMG)
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