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Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates

Love, Ryan and Payne, Richard (2003) Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates. Discussion paper, 475. Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

Under rational expectations and efficient markets, the news contained in public information announcements is directly impounded into prices with there being no role for trades in this process of information assimilation. This paper directly tests this assertion using transaction level exchange rate data and a sample of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. The main result of the paper is that even information that is publicly and simultaneously released to all market participants is largely impounded into prices via the key micro-level price determinant — order flow. We quantify the role that order flow plays and find that between a half and two thirds of price relevant information is incorporated into prices via the trading process.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://fmg.lse.ac.uk
Additional Information: © 2003 The Authors
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Sets: Research centres and groups > Financial Markets Group (FMG)
Collections > Economists Online
Collections > LSE Financial Markets Group (FMG) Working Papers
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Identification Number: 475
Date Deposited: 19 Aug 2009 10:23
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24901/

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