The interaction between the Bank of England's forecasts and policy, and the outturn

Goodhart, Charles (2004) The interaction between the Bank of England's forecasts and policy, and the outturn. Discussion paper, 496. Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

There are long, (and often variable), lags between a change in interest rates and its effect on real output and inflation. Hence policy should be based on forecasts, (King 2000). So the eventual out-turn, e.g. for output and inflation, is a complex combination of the skills of the forecaster, the response of the policy-makers to the forecasts (and to their other, possibly private, sources of information), and the impact of shocks which were unforeseen at the time of the forecast. The aim of this paper is to try to disentangle this mixture in the particular case of the Bank of England, and thereby to assess the skills of the forecasters, the adequacy of the response of the monetary authorities, and the time path of shocks which were unanticipated at the time of the original forecasts.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://fmg.lse.ac.uk
Additional Information:	© 2004 The Author
Library of Congress subject classification:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Sets:	Research centres and groups > Financial Markets Group (FMG) Collections > Economists Online Collections > LSE Financial Markets Group (FMG) Working Papers
Rights:	http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Identification Number:	496
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2009 11:15
URL:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24710/

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