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Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

Montibeller, Gilberto, Gummer, Haidee and Tumidei, Daniele (2007) Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice. Operational Research working papers, LSEOR 07.92. Operational Research Group, Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. ISBN 9780853280477

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Abstract

The integrated use of Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an indepth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper we describe two case-studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it; and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/operationalResear...
Additional Information: © 2007 The London School of Economics and Political Science
Library of Congress subject classification: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Sets: Research centres and groups > Management Science Group
Departments > Management
Collections > Economists Online
Rights: http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/usingTheLibrary/academicSupport/OA/depositYourResearch.aspx
Identification Number: LSEOR 07.92
Date Deposited: 13 Feb 2009 14:47
URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/22709/

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