Aggregating causal judgements

Bradley, Richard ORCID: 0000-0003-2184-7844, Dietrich, Franz and List, Christian ORCID: 0000-0003-1627-800X (2006) Aggregating causal judgements. . Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Decision making typically requires judgements about causal relations: we need to know both the causal e¤ects of our actions and the causal relevance of various environmental factors. Judgements about the nature and strength of causal rela- tions often di¤er, even among experts. How to handle such diversity is the topic of this paper. First we consider the possibility of aggregating causal judgements via the aggregation of probabilistic ones. The broadly negative outcome of this investigation leads us to look at aggregating causal judgements independently of probabilistic ones. We do so by transcribing causal claims into the judgement aggregation framework and applying some recent results in this …eld. Finally we look at the implications for probability aggregation when it is constrained by prior aggregation of causal judgements.

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:	http://personal.lse.ac.uk/list/default.htm
Additional Information:	© 2006 Richard Bradley, Franz Dietrich and Christian List
Divisions:	Government CPNSS Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2008 11:10
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 18:45
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/20088

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