Muûls, Mirabelle and Petropoulou, Dimitra 
ORCID: 0000-0003-4570-3570
(2008)
A swing-state theory of trade protection in the electoral college.
CEP Discussion Papers (CEPDP0849).
London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.
ISBN 9780853282426
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Abstract
This paper develops an infinite-horizon, political agency model with a continuum of political districts, in which incumbent politicians can improve their re-election probability by attracting swing voters in key states through strategic trade protection. A unique equilibrium is shown to exist where incumbents build a reputation of protectionism through their policy decisions. We show that strategic trade protection is more likely when protectionist swing voters have a lead over free-trade supporters in states with relatively strong electoral competition that represent a larger proportion of Electoral College votes. US data is used to test the hypothesis that industrial concentration in swing and decisive states is an important determinant of trade protection of that industry. The empirical findings provide support for the theory and highlight an important, and previously overlooked, determinant of trade protection in the US Electoral College.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Discussion Paper) |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://cep.lse.ac.uk |
| Additional Information: | © 2008 The Authors |
| Divisions: | Centre for Economic Performance Economics |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HF Commerce |
| JEL classification: | D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D78 - Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Commercial Policy; Protection; Promotion; Trade Negotiations; International Trade Organizations |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Jul 2008 11:02 |
| Last Modified: | 09 May 2025 01:05 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/19638 |
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