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A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence

Guerrero, Alexandra and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 355 (2-4). pp. 619-632. ISSN 0378-4371

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Identification Number: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.03.002


A wide variety of processes are thought to show “long-range persistence”, specifically an autocorrelation function with power-law decay. A variety of methods have been proposed to quantify this power-law decay, and weather and climate systems, among others, have been claimed to show long-range persistence. In this paper we present a new approach, defining and illustrating a new maximum likelihood estimator of the persistence exponent H. This method provides estimates of H at each time scale considered, as well as meaningful uncertainty estimates. Several independent realisations of processes with a known degree of long-range persistence are used to test the accuracy of the new estimator in terms of spread and bias. The persistence exponent of temperature data is estimated and the problems of using observational data are addressed.

Item Type: Article
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Additional Information: © 2005 Elsevier
Divisions: Centre for Analysis of Time Series
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Date Deposited: 30 Oct 2008 14:41
Last Modified: 20 Mar 2021 02:41

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