Red lines versus negotiables: how exposure to wartime violence influences support for peace settlements in Ukraine

Getmanski, Anna ORCID: 0000-0002-0978-7095, Grushetsky, Anton, Kostyuk, Nadiya, Sinmazdemir, Tolga, Wright, Austin and Zeitzoff, Thomas (2025) Red lines versus negotiables: how exposure to wartime violence influences support for peace settlements in Ukraine. Political Science Research and Methods. ISSN 2049-8470 (In Press)

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Abstract

What shapes attitudes towards wartime negotiation? Does exposure to violence lead citizens to take a hard-line approach to any peace settlements? Or does it make them more open to peace to make the violence stop? To answer these questions, we conducted a series of surveys and survey experiments in Ukraine in July 2022 and May 2023. First, using a series of survey experiments, we show that Ukrainians are flexible on certain issues, but others are considered red lines and not up for negotiation. Second, in the short-term we find that exposure to violence does not turn Ukrainians against negotiations with Russia, in some cases it makes them more amenable. Finally, over a longer duration of the war we find that support for a negotiated solution drops. Our evidence suggests this drop is linked to exposure to violence and to beliefs about the war’s future course.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	International Relations
Date Deposited:	11 Dec 2025 06:08
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2025 12:06
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/130582

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