Subnational income, growth, and the COVID-19 pandemic

Choudhary, M. Ali, Dal Barco, Ilaria, Haqqani, Ijlal A., Lenzi, Federico and Limodio, Nicola (2025) Subnational income, growth, and the COVID-19 pandemic. World Bank Economic Review, 39 (2). pp. 362-376. ISSN 0258-6770

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Abstract

Using real-time data and machine-learning methods, we produce monthly aggregates on gross national income (GNI) for 147 Pakistani districts between 2012 and 2021. We use them to understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the growth and subnational distribution of income in Pakistan. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, districts experienced a sizable decline in income during the pandemic, as their monthly growth rate dropped on average by 0.133 percentage points. Second, a larger income drop took place in districts with a higher COVID-19 incidence, which correspond to urban areas characterized by a higher population density. Third, COVID-19 caused a decline in income inequality across districts, with richer districts experiencing more negative income growth during the pandemic.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Author(s).
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HG Finance H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5601 Accounting
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output (Income) Convergence
Date Deposited:	15 May 2025 09:33
Last Modified:	31 Oct 2025 01:08
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/128131

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