The nature of long-term unemployment: predictability, heterogeneity and selection

Mueller, Andreas I. and Spinnewijn, Johannes ORCID: 0000-0002-7963-5847 (2025) The nature of long-term unemployment: predictability, heterogeneity and selection. Journal of Political Economy. ISSN 0022-3808

Text (LTU_MS) - Accepted Version Repository staff only until 20 October 2026. Download (4MB)

Abstract

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple-spell outcomes, respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the decline in average job finding over the unemployment spell but little of its cyclicality. We also find sizable heterogeneity in the profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell but not over the business cycle.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The University of Chicago
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	J Political Science H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Date Deposited:	12 Mar 2025 17:18
Last Modified:	30 Oct 2025 09:33
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127550

Actions (login required)

View Item