Bayesian reasoning for qualitative replication analysis: examples from climate politics

Fairfield, Tasha ORCID: 0000-0003-1824-6386 and Charman, Andrew (2025) Bayesian reasoning for qualitative replication analysis: examples from climate politics. Political Science Research and Methods. ISSN 2049-8470

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates how Bayesian reasoning can be used for an analog of replication analysis with qualitative research that conducts inference to best explanation. We overview the basic mechanics of Bayesian reasoning with qualitative evidence and apply our approach to recent research on climate change politics, a matter of major importance that is beginning to attract greater interest in the discipline. Our re-analysis of illustrative evidence from a prominent article on global collective-action versus distributive politics theories of climate policy largely accords with the authors’ conclusions, while illuminating the value added of Bayesian analysis. In contrast, our in-depth examination of scholarship on oil majors’ support for carbon pricing yields a Bayesian inference that diverges from the authors’ conclusions. These examples highlight the potential for Bayesian reasoning not only to improve inferences when working with qualitative evidence but also to enhance analytical transparency, facilitate communication of findings, and promote knowledge accumulation.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Authors
Divisions:	International Development
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences J Political Science
Date Deposited:	06 Mar 2025 12:06
Last Modified:	07 Apr 2025 09:24
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127518

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