Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit

Reader, Mary ORCID: 0000-0002-2154-1813, Portes, Jonathan and Patrick, Ruth (2025) Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit. Population Research and Policy Review, 44 (2). ISSN 0167-5923

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Abstract

We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author
Divisions:	STICERD
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman
JEL classification:	J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J18 - Public Policy H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H53 - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth H - Public Economics > H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents > H31 - Household
Date Deposited:	05 Mar 2025 10:39
Last Modified:	05 Mar 2025 10:39
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127503

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