AI-augmented predictions: LLM assistants improve human forecasting accuracy

Schoenegger, Philipp ORCID: 0000-0001-9930-487X, Park, Peter S., Karger, Ezra, Trott, Sean and Tetlock, Philip E. (2024) AI-augmented predictions: LLM assistants improve human forecasting accuracy. ACM Transactions on Interactive Intelligent Systems. ISSN 2160-6455

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Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) match and sometimes exceed human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment human judgment in a forecasting task. We evaluate the effect on human forecasters of two LLM assistants: one designed to provide high-quality (‘superforecasting’) advice, and the other designed to be overconfident and base-rate neglecting, thus providing noisy forecasting advice. We compare participants using these assistants to a control group that received a less advanced model that did not provide numerical predictions or engage in explicit discussion of predictions. Participants (N = 991) answered a set of six forecasting questions and had the option to consult their assigned LLM assistant throughout. Our preregistered analyses show that interacting with each of our frontier LLM assistants significantly enhances prediction accuracy by between 24% and 28% compared to the control group. Exploratory analyses showed a pronounced outlier effect in one forecasting item, without which we find that the superforecasting assistant increased accuracy by 41%, compared with 29% for the noisy assistant. We further examine whether LLM forecasting augmentation disproportionately benefits less skilled forecasters, degrades the wisdom-of-the-crowd by reducing prediction diversity, or varies in effectiveness with question difficulty. Our data do not consistently support these hypotheses. Our results suggest that access to a frontier LLM assistant, even a noisy one, can be a helpful decision aid in cognitively demanding tasks compared to a less powerful model that does not provide specific forecasting advice. However, the effects of outliers suggest that further research into the robustness of this pattern is needed.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Date Deposited:	24 Jan 2025 14:06
Last Modified:	24 Jan 2025 14:15
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127059

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