Machine learning in the prediction of human wellbeing

Oparina, Ekaterina ORCID: 0000-0002-1544-8751, Kaiser, Caspar, Gentile, Niccolò, Tkatchenko, Alexandre, Clark, Andrew E., De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel and D’Ambrosio, Conchita (2025) Machine learning in the prediction of human wellbeing. Scientific Reports, 15 (1). ISSN 2045-2322

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Abstract

Subjective wellbeing data are increasingly used across the social sciences. Yet, despite the widespread use of such data, the predictive power of approaches commonly used to model wellbeing is only limited. In response, we here use tree-based Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to provide a better understanding of respondents’ self-reported wellbeing. We analyse representative samples of more than one million respondents from Germany, the UK, and the United States, using data from 2010 to 2018. We make three contributions. First, we show that ML algorithms can indeed yield better predictive performance than standard approaches, and establish an upper bound on the predictability of wellbeing scores with survey data. Second, we use ML to identify the key drivers of evaluative wellbeing. We show that the variables emphasised in the earlier intuition- and theory-based literature also appear in ML analyses. Third, we illustrate how ML can be used to make a judgement about functional forms, including the existence of satiation points in the effects of income and the U-shaped relationship between age and wellbeing.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects:	H Social Sciences Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Date Deposited:	13 Jan 2025 14:18
Last Modified:	13 Jan 2025 14:39
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/126859

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