Fiscal rules and market discipline

Ilzetzki, Ethan ORCID: 0000-0002-7573-9411 and Thysen, Heidi (2024) Fiscal rules and market discipline. IMF Economic Review. ISSN 2041-4161

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Abstract

Fiscal rules have proliferated as a way to limit public debt. Rules aim to impose fiscal discipline on governments that might be otherwise present-biased. However, lenders also discipline government borrowing through a market mechanism, with excessive debt penalized with higher interest rates. In this paper, we study the interaction between fiscal rules and market discipline in limiting government borrowing. We do so in a sovereign borrowing model with asymmetric information about governments’ propensity to over-borrow and default. Governments may signal their fiscal rectitude by showing fiscal restraint and this can lead not only to over-borrowing as in traditional models, but also to under-borrowing, as governments attempt to signal their fiscal responsibility. In addition to their traditional role of restraining presentbiased governments, fiscal rules also make signalling more difficult and may have the perverse effect of forcing prudent governments to save even more excessively than otherwise, or alternatively hamper their ability to signal their rectitude entirely. Fiscal rules restrain impatient governments but penalize prudent governments. An optimal fiscal rule balances these tradeoffs and will be binding at times, but will never be so tight as to naïvely push governments to “do the right thing”.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2024 Authors
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification:	D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; Public Expenditures, Investment, and Finance; Taxation F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H62 - Deficit; Surplus
Date Deposited:	12 Sep 2024 14:15
Last Modified:	02 Dec 2024 19:33
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/125402

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