Politicians’ theories of voting behavior

Lucas, Jack, Sheffer, Lior, Loewen, Peter, Walgrave, Stefaan, Soontjens, Karolin, Amsalem, Eran, Bailer, Stefanie, Brack, Nathalie, Breunig, Christian, Bundi, Pirmin, Coufalová, Linda, Dumont, PatricK, Lachance, Sarah, Pereira, Miguel, Persson, Mikael, Pilet, Jean-Benoit, Rasmussen, Anne, Sterba, Maj-Britt and Varone, Frédéric (2024) Politicians’ theories of voting behavior. American Political Science Review. ISSN 1537-5943 (In Press)

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Abstract

While political scientists regularly engage in spirited theoretical debates about elections and voting behavior, few have noticed that elected politicians also have theories of elections and voting. Here, we investigate politicians’ positions on eight central theoretical debates in the area of elections and voting behavior and compare politicians’ theories to those held by ordinary citizens. Using data from face-to-face interviews with nearly 1,000 politicians in eleven countries, together with corresponding surveys of more than 12,000 citizens, we show that politicians overwhelmingly hold thin, minimalist, “democratic realist” theories of voting, while citizens’ theories are more optimistic and policy oriented. Politicians’ theoretical tendencies – along with their theoretical misalignment from citizens – are remarkably consistent across countries. These theories are likely to have important consequences for how politicians campaign, communicate with the public, think about public policy, and represent their constituents.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2024 Cambridge University Press
Divisions:	European Institute
Subjects:	J Political Science
Date Deposited:	19 Aug 2024 11:57
Last Modified:	19 Aug 2024 12:00
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/124601

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