The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically

Liu, Mengyu, Zhou, Xiong, Huang, Guohe and Li, Yongping (2024) The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically. Communications Earth and Environment, 5 (1). ISSN 2662-4435

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Abstract

The sustainable development of China has been challenged by the misalignment of water demand and supply across regions under varying climate change scenarios. Here we develop a water stress prediction index using a fuzzy decision-making approach, which analyzes spatiotemporal variations of water stress and concomitant effects on the populace within China. Our results indicate that water stress will increase from 2020 to 2099 under both low and high emission scenarios, primarily due to decreased water supplies like surface runoff and snow water content. Seasonal analysis reveals that annual fluctuations in water stress are mainly driven by changes in spring and autumn. Water stress is projected to be considerably lower in southeastern provinces compared to northwestern ones, where, on average, over 20% of the Chinese population could be severely impacted. These changes in water stress could lead to the north-to-south migration of the agriculture sector, manufacturing sector, and human population.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.nature.com/commsenv/
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Geography & Environment
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2024 13:21
Last Modified:	15 Aug 2024 17:48
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/124431

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