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House price expectations

Gohl, Niklas, Haan, Peter, Michelsen, Claus and Weinhardt, Felix (2024) House price expectations. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 218. 379 - 398. ISSN 0167-2681

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Identification Number: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015

Abstract

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-e...
Additional Information: © 2023 Elsevier B.V.
Divisions: Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification: D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D14 - Personal Finance
R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R21 - Housing Demand
R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R3 - Production Analysis and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets
Date Deposited: 01 Jul 2024 14:21
Last Modified: 03 Dec 2024 22:21
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/124063

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