The effect of police on crime: evidence from the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo

Masiero, Ilaria (2020) The effect of police on crime: evidence from the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo. Economía, 21 (1). 47 - 72. ISSN 1529-7470

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Abstract

I estimate the causal impact of police on crime, based on evidence from Brazil. To tackle reverse causality, I consider as a natural experiment the creation of a special police unit to intensify surveillance around a few tournament-related locations in São Paulo during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. To better isolate the specific impact of policing, I account for different ways in which the tournament may affect crime, namely, via fan concentration and voluntary incapacitation. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that increased police presence leads to significant reductions in criminal activity. My estimate of the crime-police elasticity (–0.37) is close to figures obtained in previous studies, suggesting that this effect is robust across settings and remains stable even in a high-crime, weak-institutions context, as in the case of Brazil.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://economia.lse.ac.uk/
Additional Information:	© 2020 LACTEA
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
JEL classification:	O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
Date Deposited:	04 Jul 2024 16:15
Last Modified:	14 Sep 2024 10:04
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/123389

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