Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures

Venmans, Frank ORCID: 0000-0002-4264-6606 and Carr, Ben (2024) Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures. Climate Risk Management, 44. ISSN 2212-0963

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Abstract

How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/climate-risk...
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Grantham Research Institute
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited:	12 Apr 2024 11:39
Last Modified:	02 May 2024 09:18
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/122627

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