Dynamic noise estimation: a generalized method for modeling noise fluctuations in decision-making

Li, Jing Jing, Shi, Chengchun ORCID: 0000-0001-7773-2099, Li, Lexin and Collins, Anne G.E. (2024) Dynamic noise estimation: a generalized method for modeling noise fluctuations in decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 119. ISSN 0022-2496

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Abstract

Computational cognitive modeling is an important tool for understanding the processes supporting human and animal decision-making. Choice data in decision-making tasks are inherently noisy, and separating noise from signal can improve the quality of computational modeling. Common approaches to model decision noise often assume constant levels of noise or exploration throughout learning (e.g., the ϵ-softmax policy). However, this assumption is not guaranteed to hold – for example, a subject might disengage and lapse into an inattentive phase for a series of trials in the middle of otherwise low-noise performance. Here, we introduce a new, computationally inexpensive method to dynamically estimate the levels of noise fluctuations in choice behavior, under a model assumption that the agent can transition between two discrete latent states (e.g., fully engaged and random). Using simulations, we show that modeling noise levels dynamically instead of statically can substantially improve model fit and parameter estimation, especially in the presence of long periods of noisy behavior, such as prolonged lapses of attention. We further demonstrate the empirical benefits of dynamic noise estimation at the individual and group levels by validating it on four published datasets featuring diverse populations, tasks, and models. Based on the theoretical and empirical evaluation of the method reported in the current work, we expect that dynamic noise estimation will improve modeling in many decision-making paradigms over the static noise estimation method currently used in the modeling literature, while keeping additional model complexity and assumptions minimal.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-m...
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Authors
Divisions:	Statistics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Date Deposited:	14 Mar 2024 16:39
Last Modified:	20 Dec 2024 00:53
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/122383

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