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Projecting the 10-year costs of care and mortality burden of depression until 2032: a Markov modelling study developed from real-world data

Chan, Vivien Kin Yi, Leung, Man Yee Mallory, Chan, Sandra Sau Man, Yang, Deliang, Knapp, Martin ORCID: 0000-0003-1427-0215, Luo, Hao, Craig, Dawn, Chen, Yingyao, Bishai, David Makram, Wong, Gloria Hoi Yan, Lum, Terry Yat Sang, Chan, Esther Wai Yin, Wong, Ian Chi Kei and Li, Xue (2024) Projecting the 10-year costs of care and mortality burden of depression until 2032: a Markov modelling study developed from real-world data. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 45. ISSN 2666-6065

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Identification Number: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101026


Background Based on real-world data, we developed a 10-year prediction model to estimate the burden among patients with depression from the public healthcare system payer's perspective to inform early resource planning in Hong Kong. Methods We developed a Markov cohort model with yearly cycles specifically capturing the pathway of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and comorbidity development along the disease course. Projected from 2023 to 2032, primary outcomes included costs of all-cause and psychiatric care, and secondary outcomes were all-cause deaths, years of life lived, and quality-adjusted life-years. Using the territory-wide electronic medical records, we identified 25,190 patients aged ≥10 years with newly diagnosed depression from 2014 to 2016 with follow-up until 2020 to observe the real-world time-to-event pattern, based on which costs and time-varying transition inputs were derived using negative binomial modelling and parametric survival analysis. We applied the model as both closed cohort, which studied a fixed cohort of incident patients in 2023, and open cohort, which introduced incident patients by year from 2014 to 2032. Utilities and annual new patients were from published sources. Findings With 9217 new patients in 2023, our closed cohort model projected the 10-year cumulative costs of all-cause and psychiatric care to reach US$309.0 million and US$58.3 million, respectively, with 899 deaths (case fatality rate: 9.8%) by 2032. In our open cohort model, 55,849–57,896 active prevalent cases would cost more than US$322.3 million and US$60.7 million, respectively, with more than 943 deaths annually from 2023 to 2032. Fewer than 20% of cases would live with TRD or comorbidities but contribute 31–54% of the costs. The greatest collective burden would occur in women aged above 40, but men aged above 65 and below 25 with medical history would have the highest costs per patient-year. The key cost drivers were relevant to the early disease stages. Interpretation A limited proportion of patients would develop TRD and comorbidities but contribute to a high proportion of costs, which necessitates appropriate attention and resource allocation. Our projection also demonstrates the application of real-world data to model long-term costs and mortality, which aid policymakers anticipate foreseeable burden and undertake budget planning to prepare for the care need in alternative scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2024 The Authors
Divisions: Personal Social Services Research Unit
Health Policy
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Date Deposited: 19 Feb 2024 11:06
Last Modified: 04 Jul 2024 03:12

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