Autoregressions in small samples, priors about observables and initial conditions

Jarocinski, Marek and Marcet, Albert (2011) Autoregressions in small samples, priors about observables and initial conditions. CEP Discussion Papers (CEPDP1061). London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.

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Abstract

We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modelled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are usually arbitrary and our prior serves to replace them in an intuitive way. To implement this prior we develop a technique for translating priors about observables into priors about parameters. We find that our prior makes a big difference for the estimated persistence of output responses to monetary policy shocks in the United States.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion...
Additional Information:	© 2011 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C32 - Time-Series Models
Date Deposited:	05 Mar 2024 13:12
Last Modified:	14 Sep 2024 04:44
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/121711

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