Yudong Chen and Yining Chen's contribution to the discussion of ‘the discussion meeting on probabilistic and statistical aspects of machine learning’

Chen, Yudong ORCID: 0000-0002-3034-4651 and Chen, Yining ORCID: 0000-0003-1697-1920 (2024) Yudong Chen and Yining Chen's contribution to the discussion of ‘the discussion meeting on probabilistic and statistical aspects of machine learning’. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology, 86 (2). 316–317. ISSN 1369-7412

Text (Automatic change-point detection in time series via deep learning) - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (3MB)

• Author
• Author

Abstract

Detecting change points in data is challenging because of the range of possible types of change and types of behaviour of data when there is no change. Statistically efficient methods for detecting a change will depend on both of these features, and it can be difficult for a practitioner to develop an appropriate detection method for their application of interest. We show how to automatically generate new offline detection methods based on training a neural network. Our approach is motivated by many existing tests for the presence of a change point being representable by a simple neural network, and thus a neural network trained with sufficient data should have performance at least as good as these methods. We present theory that quantifies the error rate for such an approach, and how it depends on the amount of training data. Empirical results show that, even with limited training data, its performance is competitive with the standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) based classifier for detecting a change in mean when the noise is independent and Gaussian, and can substantially outperform it in the presence of auto-correlated or heavy-tailed noise. Our method also shows strong results in detecting and localizing changes in activity based on accelerometer data.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://academic.oup.com/jrsssb
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Authors
Divisions:	Statistics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Date Deposited:	09 Jan 2024 17:15
Last Modified:	25 Apr 2024 14:24
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/121252

Actions (login required)

View Item