State-level economic uncertainty and cardiovascular disease deaths: evidence from the United States

Kyriopoulos, Ilias-Ioannis, Vandoros, Sotiris and Kawachi, Ichiro (2023) State-level economic uncertainty and cardiovascular disease deaths: evidence from the United States. European Journal of Epidemiology, 38 (11). 1175 - 1183. ISSN 0393-2990

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Abstract

The relationship between economic recessions and cardiovascular mortality has been widely explored. However, there is limited evidence on whether economic uncertainty alone is linked to cardiovascular disease deaths. This study examines the association between economic uncertainty and mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in the United States. We obtained monthly state-level mortality data from 2008 to 2017 and used indices capturing economic uncertainty from national/international sources and local sources. Panel data modelling was used to account for unobserved time-invariant differences between the states. Our findings suggest that economic uncertainty is independently linked to cardiovascular mortality. Uncertainty arising from national/international sources is associated with cardiovascular deaths, whereas the respective index capturing uncertainty from state/local sources is not. Deaths respond asymmetrically with respect to uncertainty fluctuations – with high levels of uncertainty driving the association. One- and two-month lagged uncertainty levels are also associated with mortality. Several robustness checks further validate the baseline findings. Overall, economic uncertainty is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality which appears to act as a psychosocial stressor and a short-term trigger. Public health strategies for cardiovascular disease need to consider factors driving economic uncertainty. Preventive measures and raising awareness can intensify in periods of economic uncertainty.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2023 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Health Policy Social Policy
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
JEL classification:	I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I10 - General
Date Deposited:	09 Nov 2023 09:51
Last Modified:	25 Apr 2024 21:33
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/120679

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