Housing market fluctuations in a life-cycle economy with credit constraints

Ortalo-Magné, François and Rady, Sven (1998) Housing market fluctuations in a life-cycle economy with credit constraints. Financial Markets Group Discussion Papers (296). Financial Markets Group, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

This paper presents a first step towards a new theory of housing market fluctuations. We develop a life-cycle model where agents face credit constraints and their housing consumption is restricted to a discrete set of possibilities. The market interaction of young credit constrained agents climbing the property ladder with old agents trading down, generates co-movements of aggregate house prices, volume of transactions and income, consistent with the patterns observed in the U.S. and the U.K. Under plausible assumptions, the model reproduces the slight lead of transaction volume over the other two series as documented in the data. Our theory asserts that the fluctuations in housing prices depend crucially on fluctuations in the current income of young households (the first-time buyers). Thus, it sheds light on why housing prices are more volatile than GDP, and why they exhibit some degree of predictability in a market where households optimize over the timing of their transactions.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://www.fmg.ac.uk/
Additional Information:	© 1998 The Authors
Divisions:	Financial Markets Group
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R21 - Housing Demand
Date Deposited:	05 Jul 2023 08:45
Last Modified:	16 Sep 2023 00:03
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/119143

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