The political scar of epidemics

Aksoy, Cevat, Eichengreen, Barry and Saka, Orkun (2020) The political scar of epidemics. Systemic Risk Centre Discussion Papers (97). Systemic Risk Centre, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

What will be the political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. We find similar negative effects on confidence in public health systems, suggesting that the loss of confidence in political leadership and institutions is associated with healthcare-related policies at the time of the epidemic. In line with this argument, our results are mostly driven by individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with less capacity to act against the epidemic, disappointing their citizens. We provide evidence of this mechanism by showing that weak governments took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. These results imply that the Coronavirus may leave behind a long-lasting political scar on the current young generation (“Generation Z”).

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://www.systemicrisk.ac.uk/
Additional Information:	© 2020 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Middle East Centre European Institute
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HG Finance R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
JEL classification:	D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy > F50 - General I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I19 - Other
Date Deposited:	13 Jun 2023 14:33
Last Modified:	16 Sep 2023 00:00
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/118901

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