Financial volatility and economic growth, 1870-2016

Danielsson, Jon ORCID: 0009-0006-9844-7960, Valenzuela, Marcela and Zer, Ilknur (2020) Financial volatility and economic growth, 1870-2016. Systemic Risk Centre Discussion Papers (100). Systemic Risk Centre, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

We investigate the causal impact of financial risk on economic growth, using a panel spanning 150 years and 74 countries. Persistent low risk encourages risky investments that ultimately augment growth but at the cost of building up of vulnerabilities in the economy and thus has a boom-to-bust effect on growth: an initial increase followed by a reversal in two years. Persistent global low risk has a more pronounced effect on growth than local risk, highlighting the relative importance of the global risk environment. While the U.S. financial markets are important, their effects on risk appetite globally are still limited. The impact of low risk is the strongest after the Bretton Woods era, for developing countries, and for countries experiencing high credit growth. Finally, long-lasting low volatility affects growth amid its notable impact on capital flows, investment, and lending quality.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://www.systemicrisk.ac.uk/
Additional Information:	© 2020 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Finance Financial Markets Group
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets
Date Deposited:	13 Jun 2023 15:45
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 19:45
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/118886

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