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Informed trading in government bond markets

Czech, Robert, Huang, Shiyang, Lou, Dong ORCID: 0000-0002-5623-4338 and Wang, Tianyu (2021) Informed trading in government bond markets. Financial Markets Group Discussion Papers (837). Financial Markets Group, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Using comprehensive administrative data from the UK, we examine trading by different investor types in government bond markets. Our sample covers virtually all secondary market trading in gilts and contains detailed information on each transaction, including the identities of both counterparties. We find that hedge funds' daily trading positively forecasts gilt returns in the following one to five days, which is then fully reversed in the following month. A part of this short-term return predictability is due to hedge funds' ability to predict other investors' future demand. Mutual fund trading also positively predicts gilt returns, but over a longer horizon of one to two months. This return pattern does not revert in the following year and is partly due to mutual funds' ability to forecast changes in short-term interest rates.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2021 The Authors
Divisions: Finance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G10 - General
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
Date Deposited: 18 May 2023 09:09
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2023 23:59

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