The spread of COVID-19 in London: network effects and optimal lockdowns

Julliard, Christian, Shi, Ran and Yuan, Kathy (2023) The spread of COVID-19 in London: network effects and optimal lockdowns. Journal of Econometrics, 235 (2). 2125 - 2154. ISSN 0304-4076

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Abstract

We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics generated by network interactions. Using the London metropolitan area as a salient case study, we show that commuter network externalities account for about 42% of the propagation of COVID-19. We find that the UK lockdown measure reduced total propagation by 44%, with more than one third of the effect coming from the reduction in network externalities. Counterfactual analyses suggest that: (i) the lockdown was somehow late, but further delay would have had more extreme consequences; (ii) a targeted lockdown of a small number of highly connected geographic regions would have been equally effective, arguably with significantly lower economic costs; (iii) targeted lockdowns based on threshold number of cases are not effective, since they fail to account for network externalities.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2023 The Author(s).
Divisions:	Finance
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine J Political Science > JS Local government Municipal government
JEL classification:	D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D85 - Network Formation and Analysis: Theory C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Date Deposited:	09 May 2023 15:30
Last Modified:	25 Apr 2024 07:51
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/118825

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