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Individual consequences of occupational decline

Edin, Per-Anders, Evans, Tiernan, Graetz, Georg, Hernnäs, Sofia and Michaels, Guy ORCID: 0000-0002-8796-4536 (2023) Individual consequences of occupational decline. Economic Journal, 133 (654). 2178 - 2209. ISSN 0013-0133

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Identification Number: 10.1093/ej/uead027


We assess the career earnings losses that individual Swedish workers suffered when their occupations’ employment declined. High-quality data allow us to overcome sorting into declining occupations on various attributes, including cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Our estimates show that occupational decline reduced mean cumulative earnings from 1986–2013 by no more than 2%–5%. This loss reflects a combination of reduced earnings conditional on employment, reduced years of employment and increased time spent in unemployment and retraining. While on average workers successfully mitigated their losses, those initially at the bottom of their occupations’ earnings distributions lost up to 8%–11%.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2023 The Authors
Divisions: Economics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
Date Deposited: 30 Mar 2023 15:00
Last Modified: 01 Apr 2024 08:37

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