Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation

Reis, Ricardo (2023) Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113. 47 - 51. ISSN 2574-0768

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Abstract

With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals) it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single focus, and finds each of them to be lacking. In the process, it isolates characteristics of different measures that models that combine them should take into account.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/pandp
Additional Information:	© 2023 American Economic Association.
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification:	D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations; Speculations E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G20 - General
Date Deposited:	09 Feb 2023 10:21
Last Modified:	15 Sep 2023 17:29
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/118130

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