Gohl, Niklas, Haan, Peter, Michelsen, Claus and Weinhardt, Felix (2022) House price expectations. CEP Discussion Papers (1829). Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
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Abstract
This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market characteristics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Discussion Paper) |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion... |
| Additional Information: | © 2022 The Authors |
| Divisions: | LSE |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| JEL classification: | R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R21 - Housing Demand R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R3 - Production Analysis and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Jan 2023 14:06 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Jan 2023 09:45 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/117761 |
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