Exiting after Brexit: public perceptions of future European Union member state departures

Ganderson, Joseph ORCID: 0000-0002-5775-6349 (2023) Exiting after Brexit: public perceptions of future European Union member state departures. West European Politics. ISSN 0140-2382

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Abstract

Public opinion scholarship suggests that Europeans broadly interpret Brexit as a cautionary fable rather than an encouraging blueprint to follow. Yet, Brexit singularly demonstrates the possibility of European disintegration, and is but one of multiple recent crises that have brought the potential for member state departures into focus. Drawing on new survey data from 16 countries and using logistic regressions, this article charts Europeans’ perceptions of the likelihood future EU exits over the next decade. It finds evidence of asymmetric motivated reasoning: Euroscepticism and pro-Brexit views strongly associate with perceiving exits likely, while among Europhiles this association is only ameliorated, not reversed. This reveals two gaps with repercussions for understanding EU public opinion dynamics. First, between Eurosceptic policy elites’ softened policy stances on exit and their supporters’ steadfast sense that further departures remain likely. Second, between Europhiles’ scepticism of Brexit and a residual lack of confidence in EU cohesion.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/fwep20
Additional Information:	© 2023 The Author
Divisions:	European Institute
Subjects:	J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) J Political Science > JC Political theory
Date Deposited:	05 Jan 2023 14:45
Last Modified:	15 Apr 2024 16:24
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/117727

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