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Growth and adaptation to climate change in the long run

Dietz, Simon ORCID: 0000-0001-5002-018X and Lanz, Bruno (2022) Growth and adaptation to climate change in the long run. CCCEP Working Paper (411). Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, London, UK.

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As the climate is changing, the global economy is adapting. We provide a novel method of estimating how much adaptation has taken place historically, how much it has cost, and how much it has reduced the impacts of climate change. The method is based on a structurally estimated, globally aggregated model of long-run growth, which identifies how household consumption and fertility preferences, innovation, and land use allow the economy to adapt to climate change. We identify the key role of agriculture, because it is especially vulnerable to climate change and food cannot be perfectly substituted. To compensate for declining crop yields, the world economy has shifted resources into agriculture and this has slowed down structural change. We also use the model to estimate optimal future carbon taxation. Adaptation is costly, so radically reducing future greenhouse gas emissions could improve welfare substantially. Uncertainty about climate damages remains substantial, particularly in agriculture, and this strongly affects optimal policy.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2022 The Authors
Divisions: Geography & Environment
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters
Date Deposited: 14 Dec 2022 14:15
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 12:25

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